All corners of #FinTwit have their own personalities, and they need to be evaluated in the light of their industry. Here is my impression of these groups, and how I like to assess what they are saying.
Hopefully my red flags are helpful. If you want me to look at an analyst, please share in the comments. I always like finding some new sources of data.
I have yet to find a macroeconomist that has ever posted that "everything is fine". There is always a problem, and the problem will manifest in minutes instead of years. There may be validity to their claim, but study it for yourself, and figure out what metrics must be studied to forecast the problem is coming true. Also, find and read the opposing viewpoints. I put Fed watchers in this category, but they tend to be less doom and gloom. Zerohedge is in here too.
If they are not bots, they typically have a method that has massive blind spots. Technical analysts do not consider fundamental analysis; value traders treat growth like they will eventually get cleaned out; while growth sees value as antiquated. Short sellers troll everything. In some pockets they battle over equities themselves (like a biotech company with a binary event approaching), but more often than not the different strategies are what are being fought over. In this group, I will look at some theses, but validate them myself.
Because the bond market is more complex and opaquer than all other markets, bond traders troll more than any other. There are camps on either side, and the insults are frequent. The adage is that the bond market is the “smart money”… but it is more like the ego market. Because nobody has a complete grasp of bonds, many assert superiority by attacking the other camp. I just read both sides, and try to assess for myself. One funny thing is when one says another is a charlatan, or a liar, I follow them to get their point of view, too. 😉
Options traders get very deep in the weeds. This corner of #FinTwit is very mathy/quant, and in many cases is TMI. A lot of that is not as applicable to the typical trader, but it is interesting the more you dig.
There is also a weird dynamic in options trading circles that feel like everyone is on the same team. They are the most helpful, possibly because options theses typically are more related to multiple variables. Further, knowledgeable options traders know we aren’t competing against each other; we are trying to find edge within an ecosystem. I’m not afraid to ask questions of options traders. They typically answer well, and it mostly about internal system workings. There is some trolling, but I think that comes naturally in Twitter.
Energy trading is closer to a science than any other sector. There is very little new news in the #OOTT crowd. They know how much is being produced, what the consumption seasonality is, futures price flows, etc. Because these traders are knee-deep in it, their opinions are very well-informed. However, this also means there is very little edge. I listen to them, but typically there is almost always consensus.
I have not met one metals trader that said gold is going down. The assumption is metals are always going up, and their only job is to determine how deep any dip will be. To be honest, I have found maybe one that I will listen to even a little bit.